Soybean oil will continue to climb the pattern of CFTC holdings at historically high levels

Due to the drought in South America that led to soybean production cuts in the region, since the end of last year, the cumulative increase in soybean oil futures prices in Dalian has reached more than 10%. In March, the theme of bean speculation has been biased toward North American planting areas. The author believes that the future soybean oil prices will remain volatile and climbing.

South American production cuts up speculation space In early March, the U.S. Department of Agriculture announced a monthly supply and demand report. March data remained unchanged from last month. Although the US soybean export sales data has recently improved significantly, the U.S. Department of Agriculture has not adjusted the export volume of U.S. beans. U.S. soybeans' carryover stocks remained at 275 million bushels this month, compared with the market’s forecast of 260 million bushels. It is clear that this report has been negative. However, the focus of this global report on soybean supply and demand is that both Brazilian and Argentine soybean production forecasts have been lowered. Among them, Brazil’s soybean production was reduced from 72 million tons in February to 68.5 million tons, a significant drop of 3.5 million tons. Argentine soybean production fell from 48 million tons in February to 46.5 million tons, down 1.5 million tons. Due to the significant reduction in South American soybean production, the market is worried about the long-term supply of soybeans. After the market, US beans will gradually enter the sowing period. South American soybean production will highlight the importance of US soybean production, which also increases the speculation of future crops and Other topics, thus pushing up the price of oil.

Planting area or declining 2011 one-acre US soybean planting income is lower than corn planting income $251.15. According to the US Department of Agriculture forecast, US soybean planting income in 2012 will still be significantly lower than that of U.S. corn. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, U.S. corn planting income in 2012 was US$270.8/acre, and US soybean planting income was US$96.8/acre. One acre of crop income still differs by $174. The U.S. Department of Agriculture earlier estimated that the US soybean planting area for the 2012/2013 marketing year is 75 million acres, which is the same as last year's planting area. This has laid down the prospect of a possible decline in the planting area.

Seasonal fluctuations to provide support for seasonal factors are important aspects affecting the futures prices of agricultural products. By using the statistical software EVIEWS to analyze the time series of soybean oil index futures prices (sourced from Mandarin Finance) from the end of 2006 to the end of 2011, the seasonal fluctuations of the soybean oil index after the stripping show that, in addition to January, From November to April, the soybean oil price experienced a seasonal turn from weak to strong, seasonality from June to August and September turned from strong to weak, which also coincided with the fluctuation of agricultural products themselves. From the end of the fourth quarter to the Spring Festival each year is the peak season for oil consumption, coupled with the large slaughter of livestock and poultry before the Spring Festival, resulting in a decline in the demand for feed, virtually pushing up the ratio of the price difference between oil and fat; and the third quarter of the year is the off-season for oil and fat consumption, and this time is The peak season of livestock and poultry restocking imperceptibly reduces the ratio of the price difference between the oil pans; and in May and October of each year, it is the harvest season of new beans in the northern and southern hemispheres, just at the extreme values ​​of both ends of seasonal fluctuations. It is located in China in the northern hemisphere, and the expected harvest of soybeans is concentrated. Listing is happening in October each year, which is also in line with the characteristics that the statistics show. At present, it is just in the season from weak to strong. It is expected that the price of oil in the future is expected to continue to rise.

CFTC holdings are at historically high levels since the 2009 CBOT soybean oil business positions data shows that from mid-November 2011 to the end of January 2012, the net long position of commercial positions is near the highest historical value, showing that the real economy is looking at future soybean oil prices higher The first-line forecast, the last time this kind of similar situation occurred in early July 2010, followed by the US soybean oil led soybean oil out of a round of unilateral rally, to the beginning of February 2011, the cumulative increase of half a year up to 50%.